CONTINGENCY PLANNING / RISK ANALYSIS
a category of Political Risk
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compilation of  lectures notes by Prof. Richardson for use in his various international business classes
last updated 2015 Oct 14
see also    www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/politicalrisk.htm
see also    www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/politicalriskcontingencyplanning.htm
see also   www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/geographicenvironment.htm
see also    www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/politicalriskdefensiveintegrative.htm
see also    www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/personalrisk.htm
and  www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/alanbell.htm
 
This web page has many audio clips - just click on the icon (like the one to the left) and you can hear Prof. Richardson's voice adding additional information to topics on the page. turn on your speakers to hear audio clips
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click to see larger
 
Contingency 
Planning

using your imagination to adapt to unseen circumstances and overcome a difficulty so that you can continue working to achieve the original objective

Sometimes when you teach a subject that includes topics like contingency planning, you gotta "represent" that you apply the theory you are teaching. 
Probably the biggest part of contingency planning is having a calm cool attitude and reacting to an unusual situation with some imagination and thinking "outside" the box - like,, literally outside. It is important that when you have a situation that changes your plan, you think about alternatives, and don't give up right away.
When the power went off in the new IC Instructional Centre at UofT Scarborough Campus Monday night (2012 June 4th) all the other profs walked out of their 7pm classes and told their students that class was cancelled. Actually, the power went out at 6:40 pm - no "authorities" showed up til 5 minutes to 8pm so nobody knew "nuthing 'bout nothing". Rather than waste the class, I said let's do our test outside on the patio
  • i knew sunset wasn't til 8:45 pm and we'd have enough light
  • and because the restaurant had a no lock on the patio gate, we could just exit out on to the sidewalk when we were finished
I know that when students study for a test they mentally get ready to do it, and if something happens to screw up the timing it can be bad, especially if you have to wait another week to do the test. This test was not a mid-term, it was just a little test at the beginning of the course so the students could have a chance to earn some marks and have an intro to see how i ask questions so they'd be prepared for the mod-term. So, two days later I post this pic, and, you may be interested to know that so far, of the first 5 tests I have marked, 4 people got "A". When I finish, i'll give each student the option of keeping the mark, or will work out something on a case-by-case basis. Anyhooo, guaranteed they never wrote a test like that before! Am going to surprise them by bringing pizza for the whole class next week cause it was a bit cold, they stuck it out til the rain began to drizzle around 8:35, am very proud of all of them.
WTGR

 
INTRODUCTION , The topic of Political Risk is very large. For the sake of being able to divide this large topic into "teachable" components, I have created this particular unit dealing just with the immediate considerations of Contingency Planning.

In late 2009 the topic of Contingency Planning took on a new, and "immediate" meaning in the context of planning for medical situations that involved illness on a large scale - so it was no longer a theoretical concept but something that could effect the readers of this page - as potential victims of the H1N1 virus.

Most institutions, including colleges and universities have been making Contingency Plans to deal with absences of students and instructors for flu.
 www.preparedness.utoronto.ca/pandemic/Information_for_Faculty_and_Staff.htm

WTGR

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KEY
POINTS
, Alan Bell explains that when companies are assessing the possibility of developing a contingency plan, and the expected security requirements to make it work, it is necessary to ask one tough question.

How much will it cost to develop a contingency plan, and increase our security where risk situations warrant?

compared to NOT doing this, and paying for the consequences if something does happen?

For some large scale projects overseas, it could cost millions of dollars to get the operation "up and running" after a disaster, which would also see the company fall behind other businesses that did have contingencies in place.

Or, a company could spend tens of thousands of dollars on security and contingencies so if a bad thing happens, the company can respond, and recover.

Or, a company can do nothing, and just hope that they are lucky, and nothing bad every happens.

Unfortunately, 
   o with terrorism reaching all corners of the globe
   o with corporate competitiveness resulting in some nasty competitor behaviour
   o with social-cultural/religious tensions boiling over in many countries
   o with weather extremes causing massive disruptions
it is very unlikely that you can just be lucky and not get hit

WTGR

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CONTINGENCY
PLAN

BREAKDOWN

, In Sept 2008 a student in C44 was hearing guest speaker Alan Bell discuss contingency planning and the student asked what are the components of Contingency Planning

It was explained that this course does not have the time to be able to delve into specific components, rather it is important for the student to understand the more simple aspect of WHY contingency plans are important and what are the basic circumstances in which they are necessary - in the context of the 6 environments challenging business these days.

However - for the sake of answering the student's query, here listed below are some of the specific components of a contingency plan

  • security planning
  • communications
  • medical
  • accomodation
  • travel routes and transport
  • other
WTGR / AWB
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CONTINGENCY
PLAN

BREAKDOWN

, Listed below are some of the specific components of a contingency plan
security planning
  • security planning
    • physical security (Close Protection / Bodyguards)
    • security awareness training
      • what to do if scenarios
        • tactical
          • being followed
          • being shot at, etc.
    • K & R (Kidnap and Ransom) training
      • proof of life
      • insurance
      • survivability tactics
      • who responds, who does what
WTGR / AWB
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CONTINGENCY
PLAN

BREAKDOWN

, Listed below are some of the specific components of a contingency plan
security planning
  • communications
    • during the incident
    • what back-ups will you use
    • who needs to send certain messages
    • what resources do you need to access
      • if power is out
      • if web is down
      • if car, train, air transport not functioning
WTGR / AWB
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CONTINGENCY
PLAN

BREAKDOWN

,
  • communications
    • during the incident
    • what back-ups will you use
    • who needs to send certain messages
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb3eCMxxI6Q&feature=youtu.be In developing a contingency plan it is critical to identify "who does what" because such decisions cannot be made in a panic - they needed to be sorted out in advance.
Richardson uses the example of responding to a medical emergency.

2 min 9 sec


 
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEYO4mpl7zs YouTube video in which security expert Alan Bell (former British Special Forces) discusses the Communications aspects of Contingency Planning and Kidnap and Ransom situations.

Includes explanation of "lost comms" scenario

3 min 32 sec.

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CONTINGENCY
PLAN

BREAKDOWN

,
  • medical
    • what employees are "at risk" due to existing health situations
    • medical health professionals availability
    • who has emergency first aid training if "first responders" not available
    • location for first aid help
      • back-up location
      • back-up transportation to emergency aid
      • plan, helicopter
    •  Preparedness at U of T - Pandemic Preparedness 
      • Information for Students
       www.preparedness.utoronto.ca/pandemic/Information_for_Students.htm
WTGR / AWB
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ua7Tl0UEyVw YouTube video in which security expert Alan Bell (former British Special Forces) discusses the Medical aspects of Contingency Planning and responding to medical risk situations.
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CONTINGENCY
PLAN

BREAKDOWN

,
  • accommodation
    • if transportation system "out" are arrangements made for employees to stay in area hotels
    • back-up accomodation if hotel on business trip unavailable
    • maps and communications to direct employees to emergency shelter
      • hurricane, tornado, flood
WTGR / AWB
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CONTINGENCY
PLAN

BREAKDOWN

,
  • travel routes and transport
    • back-up sources of fuel for cars and trucks
    • alternative to mass transit (subway, trains, planes)
    • back-up maps/compass if GPS or satellites down
    • risks and hostile areas along travel routes
  • other
    • money
    • water and food
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CES13-oudAo In our IBM600 International business class at Seneca in early June 2012 we were talking about contingency planning for personal risk situations and one of the things I mentioned was a "grab bag", so to explain the point more fully made this quick video

    2 min - uploaded 2012 June 6

    a "grab bag" would be the bag or container within which you keep an emergency suppy of food, bottle of water and money, passport etc. when you literally have to "grab" something really quick and leave instantly
WTGR / AWB
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSAbktEdnbk BP Oil Spill - Mexico 2010

Student Pranya Y. in MGTC46 in Feb 2011 emailed to comment on how the geographic environment effects business and the problems with B.P.'s Contingency Planning re: the big oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.
Pranya and Prof. WTGR made a short video in which Pranya discussed the main points of her email.

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CONTINGENCY
PLAN

Examples

, Student Anne M. in MGTC44 at UTSC in Sept 2010 was reading stories about contingency planning online and came across a good article discussing how BP had a poor contingency plan for dealing with the oil spill.

The original story was at
 /www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jun/0
9/bp-oil-spill-contingency-plan

From the article, Anne reviewed several points
 

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CONTINGENCY
PLAN

BP

Anne emailed to say

"BP made a lot of mistakes in its risk assessment and contingency  planning which has cost the company billions of dollars in cleanup  costs and lawsuits (not to mention more than a 40% decrease in  company's shareholder value) and here is what I learned from the  company's mistakes:
1.    BP overestimated its preparedness and underestimated the chances of  major risks.
2.    BP made false assumptions about the extent, direction, and  consequences of any possible spill from deepwater drilling.
3.    BP did not test its contingency plan or have a back-up plan ready  to move on to the next level of response if necessary.
4.    BP failed to accept accountability and responsibility; instead, it  tried to shirk blame on to the rig's builder, Halliburton, and  operator, Transocean. "

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Anne M's helpful comments about the BP Oil Spill (and their lack of effective contingency planning) was read by Alan Bell in advance of his Sept 2010 "guest lecture" to MGTC44.

Mr. Bell used Anne's comments in the Sept 2010 lecture to draw out some important considerations of  the consequences of failure to develop contingency plans.

Pictured to the left is Alan Bell, Anne M. and Prof. Richardson

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CONTINGENCY
PLAN

Business Continuity

Examples

Student Gohul S. in MGTC11 at UTSC in March 2011 emailed to say 
"Professor Richardson, I found the class on Contingency Planning and Business Continuity to be quite interesting and on my drive back home and over the weekend I thought about some different ways contingency planning and business continuity apply to the sports world."

Gohul comments on Business Continuity in the case of how the New Orleans Saints managed the hurricane fiasco

Gohul explains "When Hurricane Katrina hit, it essentially damaged every building in the city that included the stadium the team played in."

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Gohul explains
"When the Superdome was partially destroyed due to the hurricane 2005, the team went through the incident response phase. They notified the season ticket holders, the fans, the NFL, the media and the people of New Orleans that the damage was too extensive and that there was a large chance that come kick-off for the upcoming season, they would not be playing at the Superdome. They assured them however they would try to come with a solution so that the team does not forfeit the season.

Then came the disaster recovery phase. In this stage with the season only a few months from starting they gathered their players together and let them know regardless the team would be playing the season. The owner of the team managed to rent out a stadium in San Antonio (relatively close) so that the players could practice to ensure they would be ready. At this time the Superdome was being repaired so the team could eventually play there later on during the season.

Finally the business continuity phase in which the team got the league to approve the stadium at Louisiana State University and the stadium at which they practiced at to be the home stadium until the Superdome was fixed. By doing so the team did not forfeit any money or games that season due to the damages of their stadium. They managed to continue playing and eventually when their stadium was fixed they went back to playing in the stadium they called home for so many years.

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WTGR adds
Thanks Gohul, "Business Continuity" s a term we use with references to terminology - that doesn't really take in to account the "will to survive". The people of New Orleans, as reflected by their football team, did rebuild, and it was tremendous to see just 4 years later the Saints make it to the NFL final, and WIN Superbowl 2009 - Television ratings for Super Bowl 44 were the highest for any TV program, sports or otherwise, in history
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Risk 
Analysis
KEY
POINTS
This company, Hill & Associates,  used some of  Prof. Richardson's material, so we have in turn quoted and linked to them.

http://www.hill.com/archive/pub/papers/papers.asp?yr=2003&mn=11
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Risk 
Analysis
Michel Gilbert of Hill Associates provides an Introduction to Risk Analysis

"The risk analysis is the most complex part of a properly conducted disaster recovery plan. However, a clear understanding of the primary goal of a risk analysis, a grasp of the critical terminology, and adherence to a well-structured process renders this complex activity manageable."

The Goal of a Risk Analysis
"Disaster recovery planning seeks to provide a level of protection for corporate assets that will hopefully ensure a company's survival in the face of disastrous events. Before a protection strategy can be implemented, three basic questions must be answered."

   o What am I protecting?
   o What am I protecting against?
   o How much money, time, and effort should I expend?"

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Risk 
Analysis

broken down

The fundamentals of Contingency Planning requires that you first understand the Risks, which requires some degree of "Risk Analysis" to understand
   o what am I protecting, what do I have that is important
                o sometimes this requires an inventory of assets in order 
                       to have a dollar value on what is at stake
   o what am I protecting against, what are the specific risks
                o this can be very complicated and is effected by
                      human factors, the economic and technological environment,
                      as well as weather extremes and other geographical 
                       circumstances
   o how much am I willing to spend to protect these assets
                o how much money am I willing to spend
                                   o costs of people to act as guards
                                   o money for defences
                                   o money for countermeasures
   o time: how much time will I dedicate 
   o how much effort - what part of job descriptions will I task to this

WTGR

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QPamr31ZCU YouTube video in which security expert Alan Bell (former British Special Forces) discusses the fundamentals of Contingency Planning in the context of Risk Analysis.
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Risk 
Analysis

Terms
Used

Risk Analysis Terminology

To better understand discussions on Risk and Threat Analysis, it is necessary that readers understand what is meant by some terms particular to this part of the security industry.

   o Asset: something worth something
        o it could be a human asset - a person you need to do something
        o it could be a facility, structure or building
        o it could be a piece of valuable equipment or a vehicle
        o it could be something related to communications and transportation
        o it could be data, such as detailed customer information
                 - basically anything of value that you want to protect

basically, the definition of an asset is something which is valuable for your company to have to carry out the critical aspects of business
terms from Alan Bell of globerisk.com and Michel Gilbert of Hill Associates
cc.

first published by Dilbert in Nov 1997
 
Risk 
Analysis

Terms
Used

  o Threat agent: Any person or thing that can do harm
threats by themselves are not a problem, it is a problem when that threat is facilitated by a person "bringing it", or a situation causing the threat to go from "maybe" to "now"
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Risk 
Analysis

Terms
Used

  o Vulnerability: A deficiency that leaves an asset open to harm
any weakness which, left unprotected, could cause the company to lose productivity 
or something that threatens asset value; 
for example, soil erosion from clear cutting a forest may create a potential flood if the typhoon is strong that year, which could flood a mining project that another company had nearby in the same region 
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Risk 
Analysis

Terms
Used

  o Exposure: Harm caused when a threat becomes real
In international business, an example of an exposure could the consequence of a particular currency rising very high, which wipes out the profit margin expected in an enterprise
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Risk 
Analysis

Terms
Used

  o Countermeasure: 
    Any protective measure we take to safeguard an asset, and respond to an exposure
In the case of preventing against a flood, you could dig a large trench to divert flood water around the mine shaft so the drifts will not be flooded

In the case of preventing against political risk such as a violent change of government, you can hire a security force to repel looters and defend against small bands of soldiers that want to pillage your facilities

In the case of an I.T. failure, countermeasure could mean that corporate data is backed up at another location so if the main server fails, you have a back-up
Or countermeasures could mean that if you are hacked, you have the ability to not just know you are hacked, but actually do something to repell further attacks of the hacker, or even identify him to authorities

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Contingency planning

what are the 
specific
risks

MEDICAL

List of specific medical risks and threats that Contingency plans are used for 
  • medical trauma in remote areas and the subsequent evacuation and treatment
  • Disease and plague
    • in late Sept 2005 the WHO World Health Organization broadcast alarming predictions that a pandemic stemming from the bird flu virus (presently killing people in Asia) could kill as many as 150 million worldwide
    • SARS 2003 could be considered an emergency that required carrying out Contingency Plans 
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Contingency planning

what are the 
specific
risks

VIOLENCE

List of specific violent risks and threats that Contingency plans are used for 
  • theft of expensive equipment and recovery of important corporate data; 
  • kidnapping situations
    • kidnapping for money
    • kidnapping for political purposes
  • violent robbery and assault of executives; 
    • Mexico City, Moscow, South Africa, New York City, Detroit, L.A., Malvern !
  • extortion and threats against company operations, offices and facilities; 
  • security of communications and electronic countermeasures
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Contingency planning

what are the 
specific
risks

List of specific risks from government problems that Contingency plans are used for 
  • municipal and regional government problems
    • power blackout, accident or sabotage
    • sewer flooding caused by heavy rains
    • road closures, earthquakes, flooding, tornadoes
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see also   http://www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/geographicenvironment.htm
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contingency 
planning 
 

preventive measures

 

Plans
The following points are things a company can do in order to be able to respond appropriately when a risk situation effects the ability to carry on business as usual.
 
  • Ensure that all at-risk personnel, and their support staff and team members, understand the action items they need to follow in contingency plans.
    • meaning if the phones are out, you do this to communicate
    • if the electrical power is out, you do this
    • if there is extreme violence in the city, you go hide here
  • Invest in access to international security consultants and treat their services as part of your core resources. 
  • Incorporate security considerations into your initial plans. 
  • Identify security resources within your existing staff, including medical and first aid knowledge, language abilities, logistical and transportation expertise and so on. 
  • Develop security strategies with other Canadian companies operating in similar regions and situations of risk, including strategies for joint evacuation, medical assistance, terrorism incidents and perimeter security. 
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contingency 
planning 
 

preventive measures

 

Personal Plans
Aaron C. was in MGTC44
he emailed Jan 29th, 2007 to make comments in response to what we had talked about in class with respect to Contingency Planning

Aaron said..

Dear Prof. Richardson:
While I was watching CBC news today, i see the Canadian gov't are promoting [to] us that we all should have a 72 hours plan. To me it seems like this is another kind of "contingency plan" and i think it will be helpful for all of the students.
www.getprepared.ca(link still works in 2011 March)
Sincerely, Aaron
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contingency 
planning 
 

preventive measures

 

Personal Plans

WTGR wrote back to Aaron saying

your email makes a good point
- the big worry from government is
1. powerblackout caused by an ice storm,
2. or a sun spot surge, causing a power overloading and bringing on a blackout

-Because of government cutbacks in municipal infrastructure, it could be a week (or two) in some areas to get power back online - and in a big city, it would take longer

My step-brother happens to be in charge of the physical-plant and generators for a large city hospital - he says the generators can supply power, but

A. they can't run 24 hrs non-stop, they have to be shut down to cool the machine parts
B. they can only run as long as they have a fuel oil supply, and they only have a couple of days of fuel oil on the premises
C. by day 3 or 4 they'd have to get a truck to come in with more fuel ... BUT the truck can only make the delivery if it has gas and the gas pumps would all be shut down cause they run on electricity

- it has the potential to be a big big problem and something that Canadian businesses should think about

thanks again for your contribution Aaron

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Risk Analysis Terminology from Alan Bell of globerisk.com and Michel Gilbert of Hill Associates
 
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