RISK ANALYSIS
a category of Political Risk
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compilation of  lectures notes by Prof. Richardson for use in his various international business classes
last updated 2014 Sept 15
see also    www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/politicalrisk.htm
see also    www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/politicalriskcontingencyplanning.htm
see also   www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/geographicenvironment.htm
see also    www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/politicalriskdefensiveintegrative.htm
see also    www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/personalrisk.htm
and  www.witiger.com/internationalbusiness/alanbell.htm
 
Risk 
Analysis
KEY
POINTS
This company, Hill & Associates,  used some of  Prof. Richardson's material, so we have in turn quoted and linked to them.

http://www.hill.com/archive/pub/papers/papers.asp?yr=2003&mn=11
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Risk 
Analysis
Michel Gilbert of Hill Associates provides an Introduction to Risk Analysis

"The risk analysis is the most complex part of a properly conducted disaster recovery plan. However, a clear understanding of the primary goal of a risk analysis, a grasp of the critical terminology, and adherence to a well-structured process renders this complex activity manageable."

The Goal of a Risk Analysis
"Disaster recovery planning seeks to provide a level of protection for corporate assets that will hopefully ensure a company's survival in the face of disastrous events. Before a protection strategy can be implemented, three basic questions must be answered."

   o What am I protecting?
   o What am I protecting against?
   o How much money, time, and effort should I expend?"

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Risk 
Analysis

broken down

The fundamentals of Contingency Planning requires that you first understand the Risks, which requires some degree of "Risk Analysis" to understand
   o what am I protecting, what do I have that is important
                o sometimes this requires an inventory of assets in order 
                       to have a dollar value on what is at stake
   o what am I protecting against, what are the specific risks
                o this can be very complicated and is effected by
                      human factors, the economic and technological environment,
                      as well as weather extremes and other geographical 
                       circumstances
   o how much am I willing to spend to protect these assets
                o how much money am I willing to spend
                                   o costs of people to act as guards
                                   o money for defences
                                   o money for countermeasures
   o time: how much time will I dedicate 
   o how much effort - what part of job descriptions will I task to this

WTGR

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QPamr31ZCU YouTube video in which security expert Alan Bell (former British Special Forces) discusses the fundamentals of Contingency Planning in the context of Risk Analysis.
v
Risk 
Analysis

Terms
Used

Risk Analysis Terminology

To better understand discussions on Risk and Threat Analysis, it is necessary that readers understand what is meant by some terms particular to this part of the security industry.

   o Asset: something worth something
        o it could be a human asset - a person you need to do something
        o it could be a facility, structure or building
        o it could be a piece of valuable equipment or a vehicle
        o it could be something related to communications and transportation
        o it could be data, such as detailed customer information
                 - basically anything of value that you want to protect

basically, the definition of an asset is something which is valuable for your company to have to carry out the critical aspects of business
terms from Alan Bell of globerisk.com and Michel Gilbert of Hill Associates
cc.

first published by Dilbert in Nov 1997
 
Risk 
Analysis

Terms
Used

  o Threat agent: Any person or thing that can do harm
threats by themselves are not a problem, it is a problem when that threat is facilitated by a person "bringing it", or a situation causing the threat to go from "maybe" to "now"
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Risk 
Analysis

Terms
Used

  o Vulnerability: A deficiency that leaves an asset open to harm
any weakness which, left unprotected, could cause the company to lose productivity 
or something that threatens asset value; 
for example, soil erosion from clear cutting a forest may create a potential flood if the typhoon is strong that year, which could flood a mining project that another company had nearby in the same region 
..
Risk 
Analysis

Terms
Used

  o Exposure: Harm caused when a threat becomes real
In international business, an example of an exposure could the consequence of a particular currency rising very high, which wipes out the profit margin expected in an enterprise
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Risk 
Analysis

Terms
Used

  o Countermeasure: 
    Any protective measure we take to safeguard an asset, and respond to an exposure
In the case of preventing against a flood, you could dig a large trench to divert flood water around the mine shaft so the drifts will not be flooded

In the case of preventing against political risk such as a violent change of government, you can hire a security force to repel looters and defend against small bands of soldiers that want to pillage your facilities

In the case of an I.T. failure, countermeasure could mean that corporate data is backed up at another location so if the main server fails, you have a back-up
Or countermeasures could mean that if you are hacked, you have the ability to not just know you are hacked, but actually do something to repell further attacks of the hacker, or even identify him to authorities

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Risk Analysis Terminology from Alan Bell of globerisk.com and Michel Gilbert of Hill Associates
 
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